Tadej Pogačar has admitted that successful Milan-San Remo has develop into an obsession and his largest competitors are in a position to profit from that all over again on Saturday.
The Slovenian is dominating skilled biking, successful virtually each and every race he rides in Merckxian taste, but the Los angeles Classicissima nonetheless eludes him.
Pogačar has received Il Lombardia 4 occasions, Liège-Bastogne-Liège two times and the Excursion of Flanders as soon as. He has additionally received Strade Bianche thrice, and now an strive on Paris-Roubaix this 12 months is below debate. Eddy Merckx received Milan-San Remo seven occasions in simply ten rides. Whilst Pogačar has ridden Milan-San Remo 4 occasions, the Italian race has escaped his dominance, leaving him extra decided than ever to win at the By the use of Roma.
“Milan-San Remo is the one that is going to send me to my grave… I’m getting so close but it’s so far, it’s unbelievable,” Pogačar admitted to podcaster Peter Attia right through the iciness, revealing his frustration.
The Milan-San Remo cliche that it’s ‘the very best Monument to complete however the toughest to win’ stands true, even for Pogačar.
His exuberant taste of racing and his overly competitive nature approach he normally dominates races. However his abilities can develop into his weaknesses in Milan-San Remo, the place techniques and race craft are frequently extra vital than brute pressure and herbal skill.
Pogačar wears the rainbow jersey however the international champion isn’t first to the road, most likely as a result of they’re so intently marked. Most effective 5 international champions have ever received Milan-San Remo, with Beppe Saronni the final, long ago in 1983.
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Pogačar and UAE Workforce Emirates-XRG are nonetheless on the lookout for the very best mixture however are decided to win Milan-San Remo on Saturday as they aim a chain of Spring Classics this 12 months. Their silence about their ambitions this 12 months is an indication in their critical intentions.
They’re unquestionably plotting their absolute best race technique however know that Pogačar has little probability of successful a dash within the By the use of Roma. He’s rapid after an extended race however no longer quicker than Jasper Philipsen, Mads Pedersen, Michael Matthews and maybe even Filippo Ganna.
Pogačar wishes a troublesome race at the Turchino climb, alongside the coast after which over the Cipressa with 26km to head, to most likely then make a distinction with a solo assault at the Poggio.
His downside is that his competitors know his weak spot and are in a position to make use of it in opposition to him.
Similar to in 2024, if UAE and Pogačar race laborious, particularly at the Cipressa, it would depart them drained and uncovered at the Poggio, when the decisive assaults so frequently come.
“To win big races you adapt your tactics and try to take advantage of when riders are under pressure to win. That’s what I did in 2017. I knew that Peter Sagan was desperate to win and so I forced Sagan to drag us to the finish. You always have to use small but important details like that.
“We’re going to see who’s below drive this 12 months and race accordingly. You have to be good to win Milan-San Remo.”
The Cipressa in below 9 mins
Tadej Pogacar assaults at the Poggio in 2022 (Symbol credit score: Getty Photographs)
In 2024, sports manager Matxin Joxean Fernández let slip UAE’s race strategy, revealing to GCN that Pogačar and his teammates had to ride the Cipressa in less than nine minutes to reduce the Milan-San Remo peloton to just 20 riders.
UAE tried to execute that plan but lacked riders on the Cipressa and started the climb out of position. Alessandro Covi did a long turn and then Isaac del Toro eventually came to the front for the midsection of the Cipressa. But the young Mexican cracked before the summit. Pogačar had to tell Tim Wellens to ease the pace and so his rivals and several fast finishers were able to sit on the wheels and get a free ride to the Poggio.
Wellens led Pogačar out on the Poggio but Mathieu van der Poel and other riders were able to follow his first attack and another near the summit.
The Dutchman then chased down the late attacks in the final two-kilometre flat roads to set up Jasper Philipsen to win the sprint. Pogačar came through late to finish a close third but he considered it a defeat rather than a podium success.
“As a staff, we modified this race a bit bit in the previous couple of years and we are looking to make it paintings,” Pogačar said last year of the team’s Cipressa tactic.
“Whilst you carry one thing new to a race, it is laborious to execute it, particularly in this sort of race, however once a year we put a bit bit extra paintings into it a bit bit extra according to cent falls into position. I believe in the following couple of years we will do even higher.”
The 2024 UAE Team Emirates Milan-San Remo seven-rider line-up included Alessandro Covi, Marc Hirschi, Brandon McNulty, Domen Novak, Diego Ulissi and Tim Wellens. The 2025 squad is expected to be significantly stronger, with more rouleur muscle.
Pogačar climbed the Cipressa in 9:35 in 2024 according to La Gazzetta dello Sport. The plan is to again go under Matxin’s magic number of 9:00 and smash Gabriele Colombo’s record of 9:19 from 1996 when he attacked, was joined by Max Sciandri, Alexander Gontchenkov and Michele Coppolillo, then got away inside the final kilometre to win alone.
“I would not say a venture, however now we have already laughed that we are going to do the Cipressa below 9 mins,” Wellens admitted at the team’s media day in January.
“Milan-San Remo final 12 months was once additionally an instance that no longer the whole thing is going in keeping with plan,” he added.
The Cipressa conundrum
Pogacar at the Poggio adopted by way of Filippo Gann, Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel (Symbol credit score: Getty Photographs)
Pogačar quickly recovered from his Strade Bianche road rash and trained at home in Montecarlo while most of his rivals raced Paris-Nice or Tirreno-Adriatico and suffered in the cold and rain. He is expected to do a final recon ride of the final kilometres of Milan-San Remo before travelling to Milan on Thursday.
Pogačar has no doubt been thinking about his Milan-San Remo strategy this week and a similar race scenario to Colombo’s victory would be great for him.
A solo attack would be far too audacious even for Pogačar. Still, if a select group got away, without some of the big-name favourites, it would improve Pogačar’s chances of attacking alone on the Poggio and then his chances of winning Milan-San Remo.
The Cipressa starts 21.7km from the finish of Milan-San Remo. It is 5.6km long and climbs up the hillside overlooking the Mediterranean and through the olive trees at an average of 4.1%. There are hairpins and straighter sections, where wind direction is also vital. A headwind makes attacks far more difficult.
If UAE set a fast, nine-minute tempo on the Cipressa and then Pogačar attacks near the summit, would anyone dare go with him?
Tom Pidcock could be tempted.
“All of it relies. If he is going by way of himself, I am not certain it is the proper tactic to head with him. But when someone else is going with Pogačar, then that is other.
“Who knows what will happen on the day? Things are decided in the heat of the race. It depends on the weather – if it’s warm or cold, wet or dry.”
If Pogačar surges away at the Cipressa, without a doubt Mads Pedersen, Filippo Ganna, and Mathieu van der Poel could be tempted to head with him.
The highest of the Cipressa is simply 12.4km clear of the beginning of the Poggio however the rapid descent and primary coastal highway are perfect for a high-speed chase if groups have domestiques in a position to chase. The issue is that if a Cipressa assault is more potent than the chase staff.
Colombo, Sciandri, Gontchenkov and Coppolillo controlled to open a 30-second hole at the Cipressa and the coast highway because of a poorly organised chase by way of the peloton and have been by no means noticed once more.
“However the weather and the wind is the key. People watching at home can’t feel the wind out on the road but it is a vital factor in races. An attack on the Cipressa into a headwind is pointless because it’ll also be a headwind on the flat road to the Cipressa. Anyone with a teammate can just sit on the wheel and catch the attackers.
“If a small staff is going transparent and the stipulations are proper, then they’ve to all be 100% dedicated, and that’s every other downside that may flip a Cipressa assault right into a waste of power and so a large mistake.
Attacking at the Cipressa could be a large gamble for Pogačar, he’d cross all-in with out realizing his odds and if the assault would paintings. It is dangerous. He can not fritter away his staff at the Cipressa like he did in 2024 as a result of he wishes them for the Poggio when it is virtually sure that the actually decisive assaults can be made.”
Caleb Ewan’s selection technique recommendation
Tadej Pogačar powers down the Poggio descent adopted by way of Mathieu van der Poel (Symbol credit score: Getty Photographs)
Caleb Ewan was perhaps never considered a Milan-San Remo contender and will not ride this year after his off-season move to Ineos Grenadiers. However, the Australian sprinter won the 18-rider sprint for second place in 2018 when Vincenzo Nibali attacked alone off the Poggio descent. He was also second in 2021 when Jasper Stuyven pulled off a similar move.
As a sprinter, Ewan knows the art of survival better than most, it helps him stay in the peloton before he uses his fast finish. Ewan is aware of Pogačar’s Milan-San Remo’s chances but also his weaknesses. He advised him to do a radically different tactic and focus on one big attack on the Poggio.
“I believe he’s going to win it in the future however it is going to be laborious for him, simply as a result of the in-between guys like Van der Poel, who can climb and dash,” Ewan mentioned.
“We all know that he is going to take a look at one thing, so everyone seems to be in a position for it and conscious. The error that Pogačar has made prior to, I consider, is that he attempted to make it too laborious at the Cipressa, which actually made the race between there and the Poggio tremendous simple. Extra guys have been dropped, so the leaders had fewer teammates and so the run-in to the Poggio was once more uncomplicated and the blokes he was once then looking to drop have been all brisker.
“I think his best bet is to go super easy over the Cipressa, keep as many teammates as possible and then do a high-speed leadout to the Poggio and then go from the bottom, then attack them again near the top if needed.”
The wonderful thing about Milan-San Remo is that it may be made up our minds in such a lot of tactics. A large number of riders get started considering they’ve an opportunity of victory and in principle, they are able to.
The assaults at the Poggio can come to a decision the whole thing or will also be swept up at the twisting descent. A rider on occasion can surge away at the flat highway into San Remo however extra frequently they’re stuck. Milan-San Remo can lead to a dash however then the quickest finisher can fade after 300km of rapid racing or apply the flawed wheel and be boxed in alongside the By the use of Roma obstacles.
Pogačar may just get the whole thing tactically proper right through the just about seven hours of racing, however then he may just nonetheless lose the dash.
Sciandri rode and completed Milan-San Remo 12 occasions right through his occupation. He was once 3rd in 1993, fourth in 1997 after which crashed over the end line in 1997 after a marginally of wheels as Erik Zabel received the dash.
“Pogačar could win even this year, but he could also lose time and time again like me. That’s the magic of Milan-San Remo” Sciandri concluded.
